Iran: Elections, Polls, an Urban Spartacus, and Revolutions………….
“Indications of fraud in the June 12 Iranian presidential election, together with large-scale street demonstrations, have led to claims that Mahmoud Ahmadinejad did not actually win the election, and that the majority of Iranians perceive their government as illegitimate and favor regime change. An analysis of multiple polls of the Iranian public from three different sources finds little evidence to support such conclusions. The analysis conducted by the Program on International Policy Attitudes at the University of Maryland (PIPA)……. Steven Kull, director of PIPA, said, "Our analysis suggests that it would not be prudent to base US policy on the assumption that the Iranian public is in a pre-revolutionary state of mind." On the question of whether Ahmadinejad won the June 12 election, in the week before the election and after the election, in all polls a majority said they planned to or did vote for Ahmadinejad. These numbers ranged from 52 to 57% immediately before the election and 55 to 66% after the election. Steven Kull comments, "These findings do not prove that there were no irregularities in the election process. But they do not support the belief that a majority rejected Ahmadinejad." ……….”
This is partly explained by the difference between city people and rural people. Urban people were strongly against Ahmadinejad, as were certain provinces and districts. Small town folks and villagers, more religious people, were most likely for Ahmadinejad, partly because they perceived that he was favored by Ayatollah Khamenai. Partly because they have benefited the most since the Revolution in 1979. But it is important to remember that village folks and small towners rarely start revolutions, it is always the urban people who start and lead revolutions (France, Russia, Iran and PETA). Why, even the Reagan counter-Revolution started in corporate boardrooms and among the denizens of the AMA and other special interests so long ago; all very urban. Even Spartacus was really an urban warrior.
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mhg
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