Iraqi Election Lessons: Of Ayatollahs, Intellectuals, and Tribes? Spaced Out Iranians Defy Gravity: At What Cost. An Arab Octogenarian Succession. A Tale of Two Sultans
In al-Anbar province (Bush country, and this can be considered a pun): Iraqi Project Group 17.6%; Iraq Awakening (Sahwa of Abu Risha): 17.1%; Alliance of Intellectuals and Tribes: 15.9%; Iraqi Tribes: 4.55%; Iraq Intellectuals and Tribes: 3.8%.
Not a single Shi’a group seems to have won any seats in this election in al-Anbar. This is called sectarian. I like the group (party) called ‘Alliance of Intellectuals and Tribes’ and the one called ‘Iraqi Intellectuals and Tribes’: in some other parts of the world that would be ‘Workers and Peasants Party’ or 'Democratic Farmer Labor Party'. But ‘intellectuals and tribes’? Only in the Arab world where there is plenty of the latter and hardly any of the former.
In Najaf and Karbala provinces, in the southern heartland of Iraq, the vote was different: not a single Sunni group won any seats. This is also called sectarian. The results in Baghdad Province (center) are more telling for the political shift in Iraq since the overthrow of the Ba’ath: Shia parties won a total of 57.1% of the vote, Sunni parties won a total of 22% of the vote, former PM Iyad Allawi’s party (mixed secular) won 8.6%. Christian and Sabia’ group won the rest. The Baghdad results also tell much about the demographic shift in the capital that had happened during the long Ba’ath regime, as more Shi’as from the countryside moved to Baghdad.
The results show that Baghdad is now largely a Shi’a city. This is the first Arab capital to be so. Even in overwhelmingly Shi’a Bahrain, for example, the ruling oligarchy and the Sunni elite have managed to keep the Shi’a majority (65%+) out of the capital. Bahraini opposition claim that this is done through job discrimination and restrictions on real estate purchases in certain areas: there is strong anecdotal evidence to support this claim of ghettoization.
Religious parties and groups, both Shi’a and Sunni, seem to still dominate among Iraq’s Arabs.
There has been a shift in support among various parties, but the major different ethnic and sectarian groups have maintained their dominance of their respective regions.
Spaced-Out Iranians- some caveats:
Iran launched its first domestic-made space satellite this week: it was also the first satellite launched by a Middle East country. It shows the degree of advances in science and math, compared to Arab countries. The Western blockade of Iran has helped the regime develop local technology and talent, and to develop a relatively sophisticated local arms industry, at least by Middle East starndards. It works to worry the United States and Israel, although I suspect the Israelis exaggerate their fears a little. It also scares the hell out of most Arab governments: most neighboring states probably can’t even manufacture pencils on their own- but I believe some of them do make erasers. But what is the point behind it all? And is that really the place to spend the hard-earned petroleum revenues of the Iranian people? Is it sort of like re-inventing the wheel?
Duel of octogenarian princes:
Some Arab media are reporting, again, on the health of Saudi Crown Prince Sultan Bin Abdulaziz. Saudi and satellite Gulf media stay away from speculations about this issue. The 85 years old prince has been ill and moving to and from foreign clinics. The King, who seems healthier, is 86, an age where anything can happen at any time. There was talk last year that the royal family was trying to convince Sultan to step down and allow another ‘octogenarian’ brother to take his place. The throne is confined to the sons of King Abdulaziz Ibn Saud of Najd, who established the country from disparate principalities and regions by the sword. The problem is that even that uber-patriarch old King Ibn Saud could not have an unlimited number of sons, not to last forever.
Several Arab regimes have septuagenarian or octogenarian leaders. The most famous case, the one that could cause the most instability, is Husni Mubarak, president of Egypt for 28 years. He is also the most irresponsible among them: he has always refused to appoint a vice president, a successor. He became president after Sadat was assassinated by Islamists in 1981, and maybe he believes that not having a VP will keep him alive forever. This sets up Egypt for a period of uncertainty, once the long stagnant era of Mr. Mubarak ends.
But no need to fear. Everybody, from the cab drivers of Cairo up to Barack Obama in DC, knows that he plans to have his son Gamal (Jamal in non-Egyptian Arabic) succeed him, even though they both deny that. I wonder if he has got a fatwa from one of his appointed religious shaikhs making it not a sin to lie in his case, or maybe a sin not to lie in this case.
Sports Bins of Arabia- A Sultan's war against World Soccer officials:
His Royal Highness Prince Sultan Bin Fahd al-Saud has been angry at his country’s losses in the World Cup qualifying games. His highness had publicly threatened to ‘discipline’ the team and their trainers after their last loss. Before that he had asked for only European referees because he claimed the others were not fair to his team; he said Asian referees were racists, unlike Europeans. Now he is blasting the head of the Asian Soccer Federation for siding with his referees. The Asian FIFA head happens to be Qatari (Bin Hamam), which probably irks the princeling even more. It has become an ugly media war of words, one that only a spoiled petro-prince can wage on international sports bureaucrats. This prince was clearly born with a golden pair of soccer kleats (shoes) in his mouth, but he can’t play a game of soccer to save his royal carcass.
I still don’t understand why almost every single Soccer federation and Olympic Committee of the Gulf GCC is headed by a prince-ling. Is it an employment thing for idle princes? Speaking of princes and the sports they never play but want to control: His Royal Highness Prince Sultan Bin Fahad al-Saud has announced his support for the Bahrain candidate His Royal Highness Shaikh Salman al-Khalifa for membership of the executive of the FIFA World Soccer Federation. Interesting. Asinus asinum fricat: n’est-ce pas?
Cheers
mhg
m.h.ghuloum@gmail.com
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